Population review: (4). Trends in fertility

Abstract

Fertility in the United Kingdom has now been at a level below that needed for natural replacement of the population (TPFR of 2.1) for more than twenty years. Whilst fertility in many parts of the world (eg most of Europe, and much of the developing world) has declined sharply in recent years, the overall rate in the United Kingdom has been fairly stable (TPFR about 1.8) since 1980. Women are having their children at older ages: fertility rates have been falling for women aged under 30 and rising for women above that age. The mean age at motherhood rose by 1.4 years to 28.4 in England and Wales between 1984 and 1994. The proportion of women in England and Wales who were still childless at age 45 rose to 13 per cent in 1994, and will increase further in the future. One third of births are now to women who are not married, but the recent rapid increase in this proportion may not continue. The percentage of all births which are both outside marriage and registered solely by the mother has been fairly stable (around 7 per cent) for several years. Fertility rates are higher in Northern Ireland than in the rest of the United Kingdom, and lowest in Scotland and in the North of England. Northern Ireland has the lowest proportion of births outside marriage.

PIP: This article describes fertility trends in the United Kingdom during 1944-94. Fertility is examined in terms of the total period fertility rate (TPFR), cohort fertility, maternal age, family size, nonmarital fertility, and country of birth. The TPFRs for regions in 1994 were 1.95 in Northern Ireland, 1.58 in Scotland, 1.79 in Wales, and 1.74 in both England and the entire United Kingdom. Northern Ireland had the highest TPFR but the lowest proportion of nonmarital births (22.0%). The highest proportion of nonmarital births was in north and northwest England (over 38%). The national average was 32.0%. Although the United Kingdom had under replacement fertility in 1994, it had the highest fertility, excepting the Republic of Ireland (1.86), in the European Community. TPFR peaked in 1947 at 2.75 and 1964 at 2.95. The lowest TPFR was 1.69 in 1977, but TPFR rose to 1.89 in 1980. Fertility stabilized around 1.80 after 1980. Fertility decline during 1964-77 is attributed to greater proportions of women receiving a higher education, greater female participation in the work force, and greater control over fertility. Age specific fertility rates were variable. In 1994, the highest fertility was among women 25-29 years old. Fertility was lowest among women over 40 years old. During 1980-94, rates for younger women declined, and rates for women 35-39 years old increased slightly. The rates for women 30-34 are now close to rates for women 25-29. The mean age of the mother rose 1.4 years during 1984-94 to 28.4 years. The mean age of first birth in 1994 was 26.5 years. Cohorts born in 1944 were more fertile at younger ages and less fertile after the age of 25 years. Average completed family size increased for cohorts born during 1920-34 and decreased for cohorts born after 1944. The lowest level of childlessness was among the 1944 cohort. There were high rates of childlessness in 1964 and 1994. Fertility was higher among immigrant women.