Prognosis for neonatal foals in an intensive care unit

Abstract

This study was conducted to develop an equation for the prediction of outcome in neonatal foals undergoing treatment in an intensive care unit (ICU). Fifty-three physical examination, historical, and clinicopathologic variables were analyzed from the records of 99 neonatal foals (< 14 days of age) treated in the neonatal ICU of the Equine Medical Center. The outcome was recorded and the results were categorized into either surviving or nonsurviving groups. The mean values for the 2 groups were compared, and variables that differed significantly between the two groups were retained and used to construct a logistic regression equation. Retained variables were heart rate, temperature, and neutrophil count. The predictive equation then was tested prospectively in 2 additional groups of foals from 2 separate ICUs. The predicted outcome was compared to the actual outcome, and performance variables were calculated. Sensitivity (.83), specificity (.87), negative predictive value (.72), and positive predictive value (.93) were determined for foals from one neonatal ICU; the sensitivity (.83), specificity (.44), negative predictive value (.44), and positive predictive value (.83) were lower for foals at a second, separate ICU.