Third birth intentions and uncertainty in Canada

Abstract

Using data from the 1995 Canadian General Society Survey (GSS-95), we study the intention to have a third child among a sample of women and men who have already had two children (N = 505). Our results show that 15 per cent of the respondents intend to have a third child. Nearly 20 per cent of the respondents are uncertain about their fertility intentions. We found that the same factors that predict intentions also predict uncertainty, and that the effects of these predictors are remarkably similar. In particular, intentions and uncertainty generally decline with age, but increase with regular church attendance, remarriage, and being Catholic. Unlike earlier studies, we found that the sex of previous children has virtually no impact on third-birth intentions or uncertainty.

PIP: Data from the 1995 Canadian General Society Survey (GSS-95) were used to study the intention to have a third child among a sample of 252 men and 253 women who already have 2 children. As in many industrial societies, a large part of Canadian fertility decline is attributable to the decline in third-birth rates. Moreover, the third birth is important in and of itself and represents the dividing line between below and above replacement-level fertility. Social norms against childlessness and 1-child families have also been persistent throughout most of the century, with census data showing the 2-child family to have been the most common family size in North America in recent decades. Respondents were chosen based upon a national probability sample of 4835 men and 5914 women aged 15 years and older, excluding residents of the Yukon and Northwest Territories, and full-time institutionalized residents. 15% of the men and women surveyed intended to have a third child, and almost 20% of the respondents were uncertain of their fertility intentions. Survey responses indicate that the same factors which predict intentions also predict uncertainty, and the effects of those predictors are highly similar. Intentions and uncertainty generally declined with age, but increased with regular church attendance, remarriage, and being Catholic. The sex of previous children had almost no impact upon third-birth intentions or uncertainty.