Comparison of the seasonal pattern in the clinical onset of IDDM in Finland and Sardinia

Abstract

Objective: To examine the seasonal pattern for the clinical onset of IDDM in Finland and Sardinia, two areas where the incidence of IDDM is the highest in the world, and to determine the effect of climate and temperature on the clinical onset of IDDM.

Research design and methods: Analysis of seasonality for the diagnosis of IDDM was based on 1,405 cases in Finland and 425 cases in Sardinia diagnosed at < or = 14 years of age from 1989 to 1992. The average annual incidence of IDDM was 36.4/100,000 in Finland and 34.4/100,000 in Sardinia. Seasonal patterns were estimated presenting the data as short Fourier series up to three harmonics together with a possible linear trend. Likelihood ratio tests and Akaike's information criterion were used to determine the number of harmonics necessary to model the seasonal pattern. Seasonal patterns in both countries were compared between sexes and between the three 5-year age-groups, each controlling for the other's effect.

Results: In both countries, a significant seasonal pattern during a calendar year was found for the sexes combined and for two age-groups (0-9 and 10-14 years). In Sardinia, two distinct cycles were found in the younger age-group, with a decreased incidence during May through August and an increased incidence during the autumn months. Two cycles were apparent in the older age-group, with the nadir occurring during June through September. In Finland, one cycle was found in the younger age-group, with a decreased incidence in June. In the older age-group, there were two distinct cycles, with a decreased incidence in June and in the September through December period.

Conclusions: Differences between Finland and Sardinia in the seasonal pattern for the incidence of newly diagnosed IDDM cannot be explained by differences in climate, temperature, a longer warm period in Sardinia, or other climatic phenomena. The results do not provide evidence in favor of a specific viral etiology of IDDM. It may be suggested that there are triggering events at certain times, but they are likely to be unspecific. Nevertheless, why the incidence of IDDM in these two populations is equally high despite differences in climate, environment, and genetic background remains an unsolved question.