New procedures to estimate water temperatures and water depths for application in climate-dengue modeling

Abstract

Two new approaches have been developed to estimate water temperatures and water depths in containers that commonly are used as breeding sites for mosquitoes, the primary vectors of dengue viruses. These estimates are incorporated in recently developed stochastic simulation models used to describe the daily dynamics of dengue virus transmission in the urban environment. Water temperature estimates are provided through a regression model that includes meteorological variables not previously used; results show that they are significantly better than those used in previous dengue transmission models. Water depth models use a climatic water budget approach which estimates moisture storage within containers. The water depth models are less precise than those developed for water temperature; however, results are superior to those used in previous models. These new approaches should improve estimates of the impact of water conditions on dengue vectors.