Long term mortality and morbidity related to degree of damage following the 1998 earthquake in Armenia

Abstract

To assess the relation of increased mortality and morbidity to personal loss and damage following the 1988 earthquake in Armenia, the authors conducted a prospective study of mortality and a nested case-control analysis of incident morbidity. Employees of the Armenian Ministry of Health and their immediate families (n = 35,043) who survived the disaster formed the study population. Two sets of interviews with the employees, carried out over a period of 4 years of follow-up, were used as the primary source of data for this study. The highest numbers of deaths from all causes and from heart disease were observed within the first 6 months following the earthquake. The nested case-control analysis of 483 cases of newly reported heart disease and 482 matched non-heart-disease controls revealed that people with increasing levels of loss of material possessions and family members had significant increases in heart disease risk (odds ratios for "loss scores" of 1, 2, and 3 were 1.3, 1.8, and 2.6, respectively). The findings were similar with regard to the relation of damage and loss to newly reported hypertension, diabetes mellitus, and arthritis. The findings of this study support the hypothesis that longer term increased rates of heart disease and chronic disease morbidity following an earthquake are related to the intensity of exposure to disaster-related damage and losses. People sustaining such losses should be closely monitored for increased long term morbidity.