The conceptual structure of the integrated exposure uptake biokinetic model for lead in children

Abstract

The integrated exposure uptake biokinetic model for lead in children was developed to provide plausible blood lead distributions corresponding to particular combinations of multimedia lead exposure. The model is based on a set of equations that convert lead exposure (expressed as micrograms per day) to blood lead concentration (expressed as micrograms per deciliter) by quantitatively mimicking the physiologic processes that determine blood lead concentration. The exposures from air, food, water, soil, and dust are modeled independently by several routes. Amounts of lead absorbed are modeled independently for air, food, water, and soil/dust, then combined as a single input to the blood plasma reservoir of the body. Lead in the blood plasma reservoir, which includes extracellular fluids, is mathematically allocated to all tissues of the body using age-specific biokinetic parameters. The model calculation provides the estimate for blood lead concentration for that age. This value is treated as the geometric mean of possible values for a single child, or the geometric mean of expected values for a population of children exposed to the same lead concentrations. The distribution of blood lead concentrations about this geometric mean is estimated using a geometric standard deviation, typically 1.6, derived from the analysis of well-conducted community blood studies.